NBA Prediction Results Analysis (Jun 13th, 2025)
Hey Basketball Fans,
OKC was able to close this game out with clutch shots by SGA in the last 3 minutes of the game. We will have game 5 on Monday in OKC and if Caruso can continue to play like this, then OKC should win easily
Here is the summary of yesterday’s game.
Game 4 Summary & AI Prediction Analysis
Final Score: OKC 111, IND 104
Series Tied 2-2
AI Prediction Performance
✅ CORRECT - AI Prediction: OKC 118 - IND 110 (70% OKC win probability)
Actual Result: OKC won by 7 points (predicted 8-point margin)
Betting Market: Correctly favored OKC (-227 to -232)
Game Summary
Oklahoma City delivered a clutch performance to even the series 2-2, overcoming Indiana's home court advantage through superior execution down the stretch. The Thunder's defensive superiority and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's late-game heroics proved decisive in a tightly contested playoff battle.
Key Game Flow
Early Control: OKC established an early lead and maintained control for much of the game
Indiana Rallies: The Pacers fought back in the fourth quarter, cutting the lead to manageable margins
Clutch Time: SGA took over in the final minutes with crucial baskets and free throws
Defensive Stands: OKC's defense came up big when needed, forcing key turnovers
Star Performances
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): 35 PTS, 3 REB, 3 STL, 1 BLK
Shot 50.0% from the field (12-24 FG)
Struggled from three (1-4, 25%) but dominated inside
Clutch Factor: Scored crucial late-game points including a step-back jumper and multiple free throws in final minutes
Showed elite closing ability with 8 points in final 2:23
Jalen Williams (OKC): 27 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST
Efficient shooting (8-18 FG, 44.4%)
Provided crucial secondary scoring alongside SGA
Alex Caruso (OKC): 20 PTS, 3 REB, 5 STL, 1 BLK
Outstanding efficiency (7-9 FG, 77.8%)
Game-high 5 steals disrupted Indiana's offense
Highest plus-minus (+14) showing his impact
Tyrese Haliburton (IND): 18 PTS, 2 REB, 7 AST, 2 STL
Solid playmaking but couldn't find consistent shooting rhythm
7-15 FG, struggled from three (1-7, 14.3%)
Pascal Siakam (IND): 20 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST, 5 STL
Strong all-around game but couldn't get enough help
Team Statistics Analysis
OKC's Advantages:
Rebounding: 43-33 edge, crucial for second chances
Steals: 12-11 advantage created extra possessions
Efficiency: 113.3 offensive rating vs 105.1 for Indiana
Paint Dominance: 50-36 advantage in paint points
Indiana's Bright Spots:
Ball Movement: 21 assists vs 11 for OKC (61.8% assist rate)
Three-Point Shooting: 30.6% vs OKC's poor 18.8%
Assist-to-Turnover: Better ball security (1.31 vs 0.69 ratio)
Clutch Time Breakdown (Final 5 Minutes)
The game was decided in the final minutes when SGA took control:
4:07: SGA layup to tie game 97-97
2:58: SGA three-pointer for 102-103 lead
2:23: SGA step-back jumper for 104-103 lead
Final 44 seconds: SGA made 4 crucial free throws to seal victory
AI Prediction Analysis
What the AI Got Right:
Winner: Correctly predicted OKC victory despite Indiana's home court
Margin: Very close (predicted 8, actual 7)
Key Factors: OKC's defensive rating advantage (111.4 vs 117.2) proved decisive
Star Impact: SGA's dominance (predicted vs actual 35 points)
What Differed:
Scoring: Both teams scored slightly below AI projection (111/104 vs 118/110)
Three-Point Battle: Indiana shot better from three than expected, OKC much worse
Pace: Game was slower-paced than projected
Series Implications
With the series now tied 2-2, the AI's prediction framework proved highly accurate in identifying OKC's underlying advantages despite Indiana's home court. The Thunder's superior defensive metrics and SGA's clutch gene were the difference-makers, exactly as the analysis suggested.
Looking Ahead: The series returns to Oklahoma City for Game 5, where the Thunder will look to capitalize on their home court advantage and statistical superiority to take a 3-2 series lead.
Player Prop Prediction Analysis (FanDuel)
Overall Model Performance
35/59 Correct Predictions (59.3% accuracy)
Team-by-Team Breakdown
Oklahoma City Thunder: 22/35 Correct (62.9%)
Solid performance with key insights on role player variance
Outstanding Predictions:
Alex Caruso: 4/6 correct (66.7%) - Model caught his expanded offensive role perfectly with 20 PTS (vs 9.5 line), massive Over hit
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 5/7 correct (71.4%) - Excellent predictions on peripherals (steals, blocks, 3PT) despite points miss
Strong Individual Performances:
Chet Holmgren: 2/7 correct (28.6%) - Mixed results but model missed his rebounding explosion (15 vs 8.5 line)
Jalen Williams: 2/6 correct (33.3%) - Major scoring miss (27 vs 22.5 line) but hit rebounding Over
Complete Misses:
Luguentz Dort: 0/5 correct (0%) - Model overestimated across all categories in reduced role
Indiana Pacers: 13/24 Correct (54.2%)
Decent accuracy but missed some key performances
Best Individual Performance:
Pascal Siakam: 4/6 correct (66.7%) - Solid prediction accuracy including points Over (20 vs 18.5 line)
Tyrese Haliburton: 2/7 correct (28.6%) - Major struggles with assists (7 vs 8.5 line) and 3PT shooting
Consistent Predictions:
Andrew Nembhard: 2/6 correct (33.3%) - Mixed performance with some accurate peripherals
Obi Toppin: 1/1 correct (100%) - Perfect rebounding prediction (7 vs 4.5 line)
Major Disappointments:
Myles Turner: 1/5 correct (20%) - Complete statistical collapse with massive Unders across the board (12 PTS vs 14.5 line)
Key Insights
What Went Right
Role player breakouts captured - Caruso's 20-point explosion perfectly predicted
Peripheral stats solid - Steals and blocks predictions generally accurate
SGA's non-scoring stats - Model correctly identified his defensive impact and shooting struggles
What Went Wrong
Indiana's star player struggles - Haliburton's shooting woes and Turner's disappearance missed
Playoff rotation changes - Dort's reduced role not properly accounted for
Clutch game variance - Model didn't capture how pressure affected different players
Standout Performances vs Projections
Biggest Over: Caruso 20 PTS (vs 9.5 line) - 111% increase
Biggest Under: Turner 12 PTS (vs 14.5 line) - 17% decrease
Best All-Around: SGA 5/7 correct despite points miss
Worst Miss: Dort's complete role reduction (0/5 correct)
Betting Strategy Insights
The model's 62.9% accuracy on OKC props vs 54.2% on Indiana props suggests backing the road favorite's role players was the winning approach for Game 4. OKC's depth and preparation showed up most in their complementary players (Caruso) exceeding expectations, while Indiana's stars struggled under pressure at home.
Here is how the model performed overall by bookmaker.
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Disclaimer:
This information is for entertainment purposes only, and results are not guaranteed. Please play responsibly.
The Data Analytics are done by Bautista Planning and Analytics, LLC.